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Will Linux be the future of personal desktop operating systems?

As an open source enthusiast, ever since I got involved with open source, I have wished that all the software I use would be open source. And when it comes to operating systems, it's no exception. Currently, the most popular open source system is probably Linux (although this statement may not be accurate, as Linux actually refers to the Linux kernel, and should be more accurately referred to as Linux distributions, but for convenience, let's just call it Linux system). So, as a newbie who has tinkered with Linux to some extent, I want to talk about whether Linux could be the future of personal desktop operating systems. PS. This article is very subjective and written from a newbie's perspective. If it doesn't align with your opinions, feel free to discuss it in the comments.

Linux Distributions#

When it comes to the number of Linux distributions, they are as numerous as the stars in the sky. However, despite the large number, there are only a few mainstream distributions. These include the Red Hat, SUSE, Debian, and Arch distributions. Among them, the most popular are the Debian and Arch distributions. The two most famous systems from these two distributions are probably Ubuntu and Manjaro. Most other distributions are essentially just different desktop environments, themes, or minor added features. From this, you can see that while Linux seems to offer many choices, there are actually not many options when it comes to choosing a personal desktop operating system. Furthermore, the update speed and kernel versions vary among different distributions. For example, Arch has a fast update speed and focuses on up-to-date software, while Debian prioritizes stability and may have extremely outdated software packages. This also makes it difficult to build native Linux software, as compatibility becomes a major issue.

Linux Graphics Display Protocol#

This is perhaps the biggest challenge in the Linux ecosystem. The new graphics display protocol, Wayland, is not compatible with the old X11 protocol. Although there is XWayland for compatibility, it still has many issues. Many Linux software applications have not yet migrated to Wayland, especially Chinese software, which often encounters bugs under Wayland (such as the inability to input Chinese characters). Therefore, I believe that the graphics display protocol in Linux is the biggest pitfall.

Linux Desktop Environments#

Currently, Linux desktop environments can mainly be divided into two major factions: the GTK faction led by GNOME, and the Qt faction led by KDE. However, both factions have their own problems. Additionally, the conflicts between these factions have caused many historical legacy issues (if you're interested, you can Google it). Of course, there are also some geeks' favorites, such as window managers like dwm and i3wm.

Linux Software Distribution Models#

The mainstream software distribution models in Linux can be divided into two types. One is the package manager installation method, such as apt and pacman. The other is the installation method using packages like deb and Flatpak.

Is Linux the Future?#

After all the rambling, I would like to answer the question "Is Linux the future of personal desktop operating systems?" from the perspective of an ordinary Windows user. I believe that at least in the next three years, it will not be. The reasons are quite simple. First, when it comes to the choice of Linux distributions, it is already a difficult step for Windows users. There are numerous distributions, each with its own problems. If you search online, you will find conflicting opinions, with some saying Arch is good and Ubuntu is rubbish, while others say Ubuntu is rubbish and Debian is good. It's really hard to find one that meets your needs. Second, there is the issue of the Linux graphics display protocol, which makes it difficult to use Linux stably in a Chinese environment. Next is the choice of desktop environments. Although GNOME is mainstream, it is too minimalistic and has removed many features (even more than what Windows has removed). On the other hand, KDE has many small bugs (such as WiFi randomly disconnecting and reconnecting). Lastly, there is the software ecosystem. This can be said to be the biggest obstacle for Linux to become a mainstream desktop operating system, and it is also the biggest moat for Windows. Although Linux has software packages like Flatpak that are designed to be compatible with different Linux distributions, they cannot be compatible with all distributions. Moreover, Ubuntu, for example, does not include Flatpak by default in order to promote its own Snap. Of course, you can uninstall Snap and install Flatpak packages, but it adds a time cost to the switch, and the number of software available in Flatpak is not large. So, if you encounter software that is not available in Flatpak, you will have to deal with dependency hell.

Conclusion#

Although I am an open source advocate and I hope Linux can surpass Windows, the current issues with Linux are too significant. It may not have been designed specifically for desktop operating systems. In fact, as an operating system, it doesn't need too many customizability options. Stability, a comfortable user experience, and a favorable environment for developers to create native software are what I believe to be the most important. If the development environment of a system is not comfortable, and if different systems are not compatible with each other, even if I can develop native software for it, I may not choose to do so. Additionally, there is a hierarchy among Linux users (e.g., Arch users looking down on Manjaro users, Manjaro users looking down on Ubuntu users, Ubuntu users looking down on Deepin users), which I think is unnecessary. Ultimately, the most important thing for a system is to be user-friendly, as it is just a tool for our entertainment and work. However, for the majority of Windows users, Linux still has a long way to go before it becomes user-friendly. Of course, I also hope that Linux in the future will prove me wrong and successfully replace Windows. 😁 (As long as it doesn't turn into a dragon after slaying the dragon)

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